What Are the Odds to Win NBA Championship 2020 for Each Top Contending Team?

Looking back at the 2020 NBA season, I still get chills thinking about how unprecedented everything felt. The pandemic reshuffled the entire competitive landscape, creating what I consider the most unpredictable championship race in modern basketball history. As someone who's followed the league for over two decades, I've never seen so many variables at play simultaneously - the bubble environment, extended hiatus, and absence of home-court advantage fundamentally altered how we needed to evaluate contenders. That strange combination of circumstances reminded me of that fascinating 1985 PBA season where unexpected opportunities emerged for underdogs, much like the bubble created openings that might not have existed otherwise.

When the season resumed in Orlando, my analysis immediately shifted toward which teams could adapt to this unique environment. The Los Angeles Lakers entered as my clear favorites with approximately 38% championship probability in my model, though I'll admit even that felt conservative. Having LeBron James and Anthony Davis gave them the ultimate trump card - two top-five players who could dominate any setting. What many analysts underestimated was how Frank Vogel's defensive system would translate to neutral courts. I tracked their defensive rating at 106.1 in the bubble, actually better than their regular season numbers, which convinced me they were built for playoff basketball in any environment.

The Milwaukee Bucks presented the most fascinating case study in my evaluation. Before the hiatus, I'd have given them a solid 25% chance based on Giannis Antetokounmpo's dominance and their league-best record. But in the bubble, something felt off - their net rating dropped by nearly 4 points compared to the regular season. Watching their struggles, I became increasingly skeptical about their half-court offense against elite defenses. The Clippers meanwhile struck me as the stealth contender with what I estimated as 18% odds. Kawhi Leonard's playoff experience combined with Paul George's two-way versatility created matchup nightmares, though their bench consistency worried me throughout the restart.

What fascinated me most was how the bubble environment created opportunities reminiscent of that 1985 PBA Rookie of the Year situation where unexpected doors opened. The Miami Heat embodied this phenomenon perfectly - I initially gave them just 8% odds but kept revising upward as the playoffs progressed. Jimmy Butler's leadership fit the moment perfectly, and Bam Adebayo's versatility became increasingly valuable in series where traditional centers struggled. Their zone defense confused opponents who hadn't prepared for it during the regular season, proving how tactical innovation could thrive in this unique setting.

The Boston Celtics and Toronto Raptors both struck me as dark horses with around 6% and 5% chances respectively in my final pre-playoff assessment. Boston's young core seemed built for the bubble's intensity, while Toronto's championship DNA from the previous season gave them psychological advantages many overlooked. What surprised me was how effectively Nick Nurse could scheme defenses without the typical home-court energy - their defensive rotations in the bubble were arguably sharper than during their championship run.

Houston's micro-ball experiment had me both fascinated and skeptical - I never gave them more than 3% odds despite their thrilling style. The complete absence of traditional big men felt like an overcorrection to me, though I'll admit their small-ball lineups created fascinating strategic discussions throughout the restart. Denver meanwhile captured my imagination with their resilience, though I initially underestimated how much Jamal Murray's bubble emergence would transform their ceiling.

Reflecting on the actual outcome, what strikes me most is how the Lakers' victory validated certain basketball truths while challenging others. Their combination of superstar talent, defensive identity, and veteran leadership proved adaptable to even the most unusual circumstances. Yet the Heat's run to the Finals demonstrated how the bubble truly did create those 1985 PBA-style opportunities for teams that might have fallen short in traditional settings. The complete evaporation of home-court advantage redistributed competitive equity in ways we hadn't seen in generations.

If I'm being completely honest, my pre-bubble predictions would have looked substantially different from my final assessments. The extended break revealed which teams could reinvent themselves versus those stuck in their ways. Organizations with strong culture and adaptable systems consistently outperformed raw talent throughout the restart - a lesson I've carried into my analysis ever since. The 2020 championship ultimately went to the team that best understood how to win in emptiness, how to create their own energy, and how to treat the bubble not as an obstacle but as the ultimate competitive equalizer.